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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.