Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.