A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
